• Meta antitrust trial starts today. Could force divesture of Instagram and WhatsApp.
• Case represents the major test for Trump’s restructured FTC.
• Political dynamics have potential to influence outcome.

The Meta antitrust showdown with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) begins today in what legal experts call the most significant technology monopoly case since Microsoft’s battle with regulators decades ago.

The trial could potentially force Meta to divest its prized acquisitions Instagram and WhatsApp. Deals struck to buy those platform transformed Mark Zuckerberg’s company into a social media juggernaut with billions of users worldwide.

At the heart of the FTC’s case is the allegation that Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 were illegal “killer acquisitions” designed to eliminate potential competitors before they could challenge Facebook’s dominance. The trial, presided over by US District Judge James Boasberg in Washington, represents an existential threat to Meta’s business model and could drastically reshape the social media landscape.

What’s at stake?

With a market cap of $1.3 trillion and significant revenue dependence on Instagram’s advertising platform, a forced breakup could erase hundreds of billions in market value from Meta. It has spent years integrating its various platforms, allowing users to cross-post content, and advertisers to deploy campaigns across all properties simultaneously. “A breakup would disrupt some of the world’s most popular digital products and raise serious questions about how the government evaluates and approves deals,” said Jennifer Rie, Bloomberg Intelligence‘s senior litigation analyst.

The trial will feature testimony from high-profile witnesses, including Zuckerberg and former Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg. Internal communications will be scrutinised, including Zuckerberg’s infamous statement that “It is better to buy than compete” – a quote the FTC highlights in its complaint.

Meta maintains its acquisitions have benefited consumers. “We’re confident the evidence will show that the Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions have been good for competition and consumers,” a Meta spokesperson stated, and criticised the FTC for challenging deals approved over a decade ago.

The Trump administration factor

The Meta antitrust case presents the first significant test for the FTC under Trump’s second administration. The case was filed initially during Trump’s first term, but the political landscape has changed dramatically since. Trump fired the Commission’s two Democratic members in March, leaving the agency under Republican control.

Political dynamics add another layer of complexity. Zuckerberg has made operational changes held to be overtures to the Trump administration, including the loosening content moderation policies and eliminating fact-checking initiatives. According to The Wall Street Journal, he has lobbied privately for Trump to intervene and settle the case.

“It would be in […] Commissioners’ minds that if [Trump] can just up and fire the two Democrats, they could certainly be fired, too,” said Rie. “So if they don’t do his bidding, or go up against him, they risk being fired.” FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson has acknowledged this, telling reporters he would obey lawful orders if Trump directed the agency to drop the case. But, he added, he would be “surprised if that happened.”

Market definition: the core legal dispute

The trial’s outcome will depend largely on how the court defines the relevant market. The FTC argues that Meta dominates what it calls “personal social networking services” – platforms focused on communication between friends and family. By this definition, Meta’s only real competitors are Snapchat and much smaller platform, MeWe. Meta disputes this narrow market definition vigorously, arguing it faces fierce competition from numerous platforms, including TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube.

To bolster this argument, Meta plans to highlight how TikTok’s temporary ban in January corresponded with increased use of Meta’s platforms – evidence, they claim, of direct competition.

Judge Boasberg admitted during a pre-trial product demonstration that he’s not familiar with Meta’s offerings, noting he’s never had an account with the company. He even questioned “what’s the point?” (of clicking ‘like’ on a post), revealing the gap between judicial understanding and everyday digital experiences of much of the online world.

The path forward

A resolution to the Meta antitrust conflict could be years in the finalisation. If Boasberg finds Meta violated antitrust laws, a second phase of hearings would determine appropriate remedies, potentially including the divestiture of Instagram and WhatsApp.

Wall Street appears optimistic about a settlement. “I don’t think investors are bracing for a breakup,” said Shweta Khajuria, a Wolfe Research LLC analyst. “A settlement would be a more favourable outcome than stretching this out, which leaves an overhang on the stock.”

The Meta antitrust trial unfolds in an environment of political upheaval, and alongside other significant tech antitrust actions. One week after Meta’s trial begins, Google will argue why it shouldn’t face a breakup after a judge found it illegally monopolised the online search market.

As the trial begins, both Meta and the FTC appear confident. “The Trump-Vance FTC could not be more prepared for this trial,” said FTC spokesman Joe Simonson. “The agency is staffed with some of the most talented and hardworking attorneys in the country.”

For consumers who use Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook daily, the Meta antitrust proceedings represent more than abstract legal arguments – they could fundamentally alter how people communicate and share online. The outcome will likely influence not just social media’s future, but how antitrust law applies to technology markets.